Terms of Service

Last updated: [counsel: set effective date on launch]

These Terms of Service ("Terms") govern your use of The Macro Sentinel, including the public website at macrosentinel.co and any gated operator area accessed through it (together, the "Service"). The Service is operated by [counsel: insert LLC legal name and jurisdiction of formation] (the "Company," "we," "us," "our").

By accessing the Service, you agree to these Terms and to our Privacy Policy. If you do not agree, do not use the Service.

1. The Service

The Macro Sentinel publishes regime-aware macro research, including:

• A free public dashboard of composite indices, pillar reads, and research notes, updated nightly.
• A methodology page documenting the statistical battery and reasoning behind each composite.
• A public alerts log of regime-state transitions across pillars.
• A bi-weekly Regime Letter, hosted and delivered on Substack at macrosentinel.substack.com.
• A gated operator area containing portfolio-level work, accessible only to authorized operators.

The Service is research output, not investment advice, and is described in greater detail in Section 6 below.

We may add, change, or remove features at any time without liability. No paid tier is currently offered. If a paid tier is launched in the future, additional terms specific to that tier will apply at the point of purchase, and these Terms will be updated accordingly.

2. Eligibility

You must be at least 18 years old and legally able to enter into a contract to use the Service. If you are using the Service on behalf of an organization, you represent that you have authority to bind that organization to these Terms.

The public dashboard is open and does not require an account. Access to the gated operator area is granted at the Company's discretion and may be revoked at any time. Operator access is not a subscription, is not transferable, and does not constitute consideration in exchange for any obligation by the Company.

3. Acceptable use

The Service is licensed, not sold. You may read, print, and use the content for your own research and investment decisions. You may not:

• Redistribute, publish, resell, sublicense, or post the content in whole or in substantial part outside your own organization.
• Use the Service to train, fine-tune, or evaluate machine-learning models, including large language models.
• Scrape, crawl, or otherwise programmatically collect content except through endpoints we explicitly publish for that purpose.
• Reverse-engineer the operator-area access controls, probe for vulnerabilities without written authorization, or bypass rate limits.
• Use the Service in any way that violates applicable law.

Short quotations with attribution and a link back to the source page are permitted under normal fair-use / fair-dealing conventions.

4. Intellectual property

All written content, data compositions, visualizations, code, methodology documents, and brand assets on the Service are the property of the Company or its licensors and are protected by copyright and related rights.

Underlying raw data used to build our indices is sourced from third parties — including FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), ALFRED, BEA, U.S. Treasury, SIPRI, EIA, IMF, BIS, OECD, and others — and is subject to those providers' own terms. The composite indices, classifiers, regime labels, and commentary that we derive from that data are our original work.

Subject to your continuing compliance with these Terms, we grant you a non-exclusive, non-transferable, non-sublicensable, revocable license to access and use the Service for your own internal research and decision-making.

5. Third-party services

The Service relies on third-party providers, each governed by their own terms and privacy policies:

• Cloudflare — hosting, DNS, content delivery, and analytics. Your use of the Service is subject to Cloudflare's terms.
• Substack — delivery and hosting of the Regime Letter newsletter. If you subscribe to the Letter, that subscription is between you and Substack. Email collection, double opt-in, list management, and unsubscribe are handled entirely by Substack under Substack's own privacy policy and terms.
• Public data providers — listed in Section 4 above.

We are not responsible for third-party service outages or policy changes, but we will use commercially reasonable efforts to communicate any that materially affect the Service.

Our content may reference or hyperlink to third-party publications, datasets, or tools. We do not endorse and are not responsible for third-party content.

6. Research disclaimer — NOT investment advice

Specifically:

• The Company is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, commodity-pool operator, or commodity-trading adviser in any jurisdiction. Nothing on the Service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or allocate capital to any specific security, derivative, commodity, cryptocurrency, fund, or strategy for you.
• Any portfolio-level work shown in the gated operator area reflects a research portfolio — a hypothetical allocation used to evaluate and audit the methodology. It is not a managed account, and past or simulated performance is not indicative of future results.
• All backtested, walk-forward, and hypothetical performance figures are subject to well-known limitations of simulated performance, including hindsight bias, survivorship bias, and assumption sensitivity. Live results will differ.
• No information on the Service should be relied on as tax, legal, accounting, or fiduciary advice. You are responsible for your own investment decisions and should consult qualified professionals before acting on any information here.
• The Company and its principals may hold positions in the instruments discussed, and those positions may change without notice.

7. Warranty disclaimer

The Service is provided "as is" and "as available" without warranties of any kind, express or implied, including merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, accuracy, or uninterrupted availability. We do not warrant that any index, signal, regime label, or commentary is error-free or that the Service will meet your requirements. [counsel: confirm disclaimer language against governing-law requirements.]

8. Limitation of liability

To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law:

• The Company's total aggregate liability for any claim arising out of or related to the Service is limited to [counsel: insert fixed-dollar floor — e.g., USD 100 — because the Service is provided free of charge and a payments-based cap defaults to zero, which may be unenforceable in some jurisdictions].
• The Company is not liable for any indirect, incidental, consequential, special, exemplary, or punitive damages, including lost profits, lost opportunities, trading losses, or loss of data, even if we have been advised of the possibility of such damages.
• Nothing in these Terms excludes liability that cannot be excluded by applicable law (for example, gross negligence, fraud, or death / personal injury caused by negligence in jurisdictions where those cannot be disclaimed).

9. Indemnification

You agree to indemnify and hold the Company, its officers, members, employees, and agents harmless from any claim, loss, liability, or expense (including reasonable attorneys' fees) arising from your breach of these Terms, your misuse of the Service, or your violation of any law or third-party right in connection with your use of the Service.

10. Termination

You may stop using the Service at any time. To unsubscribe from the Regime Letter, use the unsubscribe link in any letter or your Substack account settings — that flow is governed by Substack.

We may suspend or revoke access to the Service (including operator access) immediately if we reasonably believe you have violated these Terms, are engaged in fraud or abuse, or are creating risk or legal exposure for the Company or other users.

Sections that by their nature should survive termination — including Intellectual Property, Research Disclaimer, Warranty Disclaimer, Limitation of Liability, Indemnification, Governing Law, and this Termination section — survive.

11. Governing law and disputes

[counsel: insert governing-law clause, venue selection, and dispute-resolution terms. Options to discuss: (a) courts of [LLC state]; (b) AAA / JAMS arbitration with class-action waiver; (c) small-claims carveout. Must reconcile with consumer-protection statutes in the states we serve, and with EU / UK consumer rules if we serve readers across borders.]

12. Changes to these Terms

We may update these Terms from time to time. The "Last updated" date at the top will change. For material changes, we will post a notice on the Service [counsel: 14 / 30] days before the change takes effect, and where reasonably practicable, mention the change in the next Regime Letter. Your continued use after the effective date constitutes acceptance of the revised Terms.

13. Miscellaneous

• Entire agreement. These Terms and the Privacy Policy form the entire agreement between you and the Company regarding the Service.
• Severability. If any provision is found unenforceable, the rest remains in effect.
• No waiver. Our failure to enforce any provision is not a waiver of our right to do so later.
• Assignment. You may not assign these Terms. We may assign them in connection with a merger, acquisition, or sale of assets.
• Notices. Notices to the Company must be sent to [email protected]. Notices to you may be posted on the Service or, where we hold a relevant email address (e.g., for operator access), sent to that address.

Contact

Questions about these Terms should be sent to [email protected].