Regime Alerts
A regime alert fires when a pillar's model-state label changes — a phase transition, a regime classifier flip, a band crossing. The page below is the public log: current state per pillar, then the chronological feed of every transition. Nothing here is positioning. The bi-weekly Regime Letter is the read on top.
Current state
Recent transitions
Methodology
Alerts are derived from the same dated regime labels published on each pillar's index/research page — no separate model, no overlay. Pillars currently tracked:
- Business Cycle (BCI) — DFM phase: EARLY / MID / LATE / RECESSION
- Cycle Clock — direction-aware composite: EARLY / MID / LATE / RECESSION
- Energy Regime — composite stress: CALM / NORMAL / ELEVATED / STRESS
- Geopolitical Alpha (Reserves) — GENERIC / SOFT / NEUTRAL / ELEVATED / ACUTE
- Food Regime — pulse_full_v2: BENIGN / NORMAL / ELEVATED / STRESS
- AI / Compute Pulse — sub-pulse aggregate: COOLING / NORMAL / HEATING
- Inflation Regime — HOT/COOL × ACCEL/STABLE/COOL (six-label classifier)
- CCMI Forward Equity Regime — train-only OLS forward-12m label: BEAR / NEUTRAL / BULL / STRONG_BULL
Pillars without per-period regime histories (Defense, Dollar System, Money / Shadow Dollar, Recession Ensemble) come online as their histories are backfilled into the alerts log. Failed-validation research previews (Digital Assets) are excluded by design.
For per-pillar threshold definitions, open the index pages: BCI · Energy · Geopolitical Alpha · Food · Compute · Inflation · CCMI.