Uncertainty Indices

Event-level uncertainty across policy, trade, and geopolitics. These indices move when the world breaks — sanctions, executive orders, tariff shocks, geopolitical escalations. They sit on top of the structural pillar substrate as amplifiers: when EPU + TPU + GPR all fire simultaneously, the regime is not just shifting — the shift is being recognized in real time. Updated .

Regime read: All four indices are sitting at or above the 95th percentile of their full history. EPU US at th percentile (latest ) — the policy uncertainty regime is structurally elevated, not transient. Trade Policy Uncertainty at th percentile reflects the post-2022 tariff and export-control cycle. GPR (geopolitical risk) is tracked separately on the Reserves pillar page — it feeds directly into the GP Alpha Index.

EPU — US vs Global, full history

Baker-Bloom-Davis Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index. US monthly history starts 1985; Global (GDP-weighted) starts 1997. The series spike on identifiable shocks: 9/11, 2008 GFC, 2011 debt-ceiling, 2016 Brexit, 2020 COVID, 2022 Russia. The 2022+ regime stays elevated.

TPU — Trade Policy Uncertainty (US, monthly 1960+)

Caldara-Iacoviello-Molligo-Prestipino-Raffo Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU). Captures uncertainty about trade policy specifically. Long peaks: early 1980s Reagan tariffs, 1985 Plaza Accord, 2018-19 Trump tariffs, 2020 COVID, 2025+ tariff cycle. The 2018+ regime is structurally distinct from the 1985-2017 baseline.

How these read against the structural pillars

The Dollar System, Reserves, and Security pillars all sit at high percentile right now — that's the structural state. The uncertainty indices on this page tell you whether new shocks are arriving on top of that baseline.

When EPU and TPU spike together with the pillars already at 90%+, the multi-polar shift is accelerating. When they fall while pillars stay high, the new regime is being absorbed without fresh policy shock. The combination is the regime amplifier signal.

Methodology

Source:

WUI (World Uncertainty Index, Ahir-Bloom-Furceri) and GPR (Caldara-Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk) are pulled separately. WUI raw data is in the cache at cache/alternative_data/uncertainty_indices/wui_*.pkl — country-level quarterly series. GPR feeds directly into the Reserves pillar substrate (geopolitical_alpha module) and is published there. Future enhancement: surface GPR alongside EPU/TPU on this page for a single uncertainty dashboard.